Poker is a Game of Skill

The chance vs skill debate in poker is as old as the game itself, while there is no doubt that the chance deal of a card can lead a player to ‘get lucky’ and win in the short-term, over time poker is a game in which the most skilled player will win. This article will look at the role of the 3 factors of chance, skill and time in the game of poker and show why poker is different from other games involving betting.

We will start by looking at the key factors that differentiate winning poker players from the rest at the tables, discussing the concepts of expectation, bet sizing and position. Next we will discuss the role of time, using an example of an ‘infinite’ poker game to demonstrate that this is a critical factor. Finally we will note that the poker world is organized into a hierarchy, with the lower levels feeding through to the top over time.
When playing poker at a casino you are playing against the other participants in the game – not the house. There is no ‘casino edge’ to the game, instead the casino will take a small cut from each pot won known as the ‘rake’. At the smallest limits the rake can be a significant percentage of the pot, as you climb the levels this is a smaller proportion percentage wise.

Winning poker players take positive expectation situations. They win more money by betting when ahead, and lose less money when behind. The ability to do this involves many skills and judgments that novice poker players do not have the ability to make. These include the ability to ‘read hands’ – logically infer a player’s cards by their betting patterns over several rounds. Playing from late position is also a skill that experienced players use to make money over time – this has the advantage of seeing opponents actions before committing money to the pot.

The best way to look at why poker is a game of skill is to even out the chance element of the dealing of cards. To do this we imagine an infinite poker game, where players are dealt exactly the same cards over time. Who would win in such a game? Well the answer should be clear, those players who are able to win the most when ahead (and importantly) lose the least when they are behind in a hand. The ability to do this is not just the mark of a winning poker player – it is in fact the definition of a winning poker player.
A final demonstration of the fact that poker is a game of skill and not chance is revealed by looking at the poker ‘hierarchy’ – from the beginning players at the small buy-in tables to the top professionals. While a player with a little poker strategy knowledge may be able to beat the lower buy-ins, moving up levels too quickly – to where very skilled and experienced players sit – will result in being ‘outplayed’ and losing money. If poker were a game of chance then it would not matter which level one played at, the cards would decide the winners. In reality a ‘shark’ at one level becomes the ‘fish’ when looking several levels above. The difference here is in the levels of thinking about the poker game – in short the professionals win because their poker skills are so much better than those of their opponents.

To summarize, poker is different from other casino games in that it is a game of skill with a chance element (the random dealing of cards). Over time the players with the strategy knowledge and skill will take the chips – even though in the short-term it is possible for any player to ‘get lucky’.