Value Betting in No Limit Hold Em Cash Games

Value betting describes the process by which we decide how much to bet to get the maximum profit (value) from our good hands. Over an extended period of time every player gets the same cards. This means that those players who win the most chips when ahead and lose the least when behind are the most profitable poker players. This article looks at value betting and suggests ways in which to improve this aspect of your game for bigger poker profits.

Extracting Value

We start by looking at the classic value betting scenario – when you are confident you have the best hand on the river and would like to extract the most value from your hand. Next the tendencies of specific opponents are factored into value betting strategy. Finally we cover how your opponent’s image of your tendencies is also important.

Deciding on the amount to value bet the river when you have good reason to believe you have the best hand is a matter of maximizing your expectation over time. That is to say you must bet the amount that will bring the biggest profit if the bet were run 100’s of times.

Take the following scenario – you make top 2 pair on the river and through observing your opponent put them on one of the following hands. Top pair, middle pair or ace-high (missed ace-king for example), each with equal likelihood. You would like to extract the best value for your hand possible, the pot is $10 and you would like to decide between the following options.

1. Bet $2 – Estimate this will be called by all 3 hands.
2. Bet $5 – Estimate that this will be called by both top and middle pair
3. Bet $15 – Estimate that this will be called by top pair only.

Ignoring the current pot your $2 value bet will be called 100% of the time meaning that your expectation is exactly $2. The $5 bet will be called 66% of the time giving an expectation of ($5*0.66) = $3.30. The $15 bet will be called 33% of the time – showing a bigger expectation still of $5. Even though the bigger bet would be called less often the expectation over time is larger for this bet on this occasion.

Determining the Bet

Of course this is a simplified scenario. Often your opponent will not have a hand that they will call a big bet with and the best ‘value’ will come from making a smaller bet that is more likely to be called. This is where both your read on the opponent’s hand and their general tendencies come into play. If this opponent is a habitual ‘calling station’ then make the bet somewhat larger – if they are particularly timid then the best value for your hand may come from making a much smaller bet.
Opponent tendencies are useful to decide whether to value bet at all. If an opponent is particularly aggressive and has shown a tendency to try to bluff at pots when checked to then a check-raise on the end may be the best option. For this to be correct you need to be sure of two things. Firstly, that your opponent is very likely to bet, and secondly that this bet – and subsequent call of your re-raise will give you more chips than value betting alone.

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How your opponent perceives your play also has an influence on how often and how much you can value bet. If you have been particularly active lately, betting and raising in many pots in the preceding hands then your value bets should be larger, since you are more likely to be called. Conversely if you are perceived as a ‘rock’ then a large value bet is not likely to be called.
To summarize, value betting with the best hand is all about maximizing your long term expectation. An assessment of hands your opponent might hold and the likelihood of them calling various sized bets with these hands will give you an indication of how much to value bet. Factoring in the specific tendencies of your opponent, as well as their perception of you based on recent hands will also help in getting the best value from your hand.