Knowing when to Bluff in No Limit Hold Em

Bluffing is a key component of a balanced and profitable no-limit Holdem strategy. Yet many players lose money with bluffs made at inappropriate times and in the wrong situations. This article analyzes bluffing situations – providing a guide to knowing when to bluff in no-limit Holdem – to improve your profits today.

We start by comparing the ‘pure bluff’ with the ‘semi-bluff’, explaining why experienced poker players prefer to bluff with outs. Next the credibility of bluffs is covered, showing you how and when a bluff can convincingly represent a plausible hand. Finally we bring opponents into the discussion – both the number of them in the hand and player-specific tendencies.
The ‘pure bluff’ can only win the hand in one way – by getting an opponent to fold. While there are many factors involved, this is usually a high-risk move, you’ll need to bet enough to drive someone off of a hand – and have no chance of winning a showdown if you are called. Compare this to the ‘semi-bluff’ - here you have outs if you are called – for example the possibility of making a flush. Now you have 2 ways to win the hand, either your opponent folds or they call and you make the best hand to win the pot.
The key concept in ‘semi-bluffing’ is that the combination of two ways to win the pot make this move profitable, even though the individual components may not be profitable on their own. The chance of your opponent folding may be too low to make the bluff element work, and the chance of you drawing to the best hand is not big enough to be profitable over time. However adding these together turn this into a profitable move.

Representing a credible hand is an important factor in knowing when to bluff. For example, if you called a big bet before the flop and further bets during the hand, then start betting when a 2 hits the river, this may not seem credible in the eyes of opponents. After all, would you have called with a hand containing a 2 before the flop? If you had limped pre-flop then holding a small pair is a more likely scenario – your bluff may be more likely to succeed here.

Scare cards that come on the turn or river – such as those making a flush or straight – can allow you to represent a credible hand. If you had limped pre-flop then called a small bet on the flop, re-raising when a flush is made possible on the turn will ensure that your opponent needs a real hand in order to call.

The fewer opponents you bluff into the better in no-limit Holdem, in fact the ideal number is just one! As more players are involved in the hand, your chances of succeeding with a bluff are reduced drastically. In fact with 3 or more players, bluffing becomes an unprofitable strategy all together.
You should also take note of the tendencies of specific opponents when considering bluffs. Particularly tight or timid opponents are ideal bluffing targets, however loose players or ‘calling stations’, who will happily call down with bottom pair, are not good targets. Avoid bluffs and value bet more often into the latter type of opponent.

To summarize, knowing when to bluff in no-limit Holdem depends on several factors. The first is whether you have outs to make the best hand if you are called. Whether you are representing a credible hand and the number (and tendencies of) your opponents are other important factors in ensuring that your bluffs are profitable.